Hello everyone and welcome to the sixth edition of the weekly market insights.

Portfolio Update

No update.

Market Update

Not much has changed since last week. The framework remains the same. Below $55k, I begin scaling in. Above that level, I stay patient.

I would not be surprised to see a short bounce first. Markets often rally before making the final leg lower. That type of move can pull people back in and create the impression that a new bull phase has started. Whether that happens or not, my focus remains unchanged. The value zone begins below $55k.

I will adjust if new data changes the setup. For now, patience is the position.

Education of the Week — Realized Cost

Bitcoin’s realized cost is the average price that all current holders paid for their coins, based on the last time each coin moved on the blockchain. You can think of it as the network’s average break-even level.

When Bitcoin trades below this level, the typical holder is sitting on a loss.

Historically, this level has often acted as support. Most investors are less willing to sell when they are already at a loss, especially long-term holders who believe in Bitcoin’s future. By the time price drops below realized cost, most short-term or weaker holders have already sold in fear. What remains is a more patient base of investors. That reduces selling pressure.

At the same time, experienced investors often view prices below realized cost as long-term opportunity. They understand the market is trading below the average cost basis of all holders. That tends to happen during periods of stress and forced selling. As selling slows and new buyers step in, supply tightens and price stabilizes.

As you can see on the chart, price has historically not stayed below realized cost for extended periods. That does not guarantee the same outcome this time. But there is also no structural reason to assume this cycle will behave completely differently. In my framework, this level still represents deep value.

That is why the plan is to begin DCA below $55k.

Price can overshoot. It can move lower than expected. That is exactly why I scale in gradually instead of deploying all capital at once. Gradual entry allows flexibility while still building exposure in what I consider a high-value zone.

That’s the plan.

Trilux